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Quebec population growth slowing down |
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According to a publication by the Quebec Ministry of Finance on demographics, the government anticipates that the province’s population will expand to 8.6 million by 2025. The study, entitled Horizon 2025, also says that Quebec’s population is getting older and the number of deaths annually will eventually surpass the birth rate. This means that while the population will continue to grow over the next 15 years, that rate of growth is decreasing.
In July 2009, the population of Quebec sat at just over 7.8 million people. According to the study, conducted with help from the Quebec Statistics Institute, this number should swell by ten percent to over 8.6 million at some point in 2025; an increase of over 810 thousand people.
Natural growth helps to explain this projected increase. In 2009, Quebec’s birth rate exceeded the death toll by 31,900. However, as the Baby Boomer generation ages, this discrepancy is expected to shrink.
Migration trends from this past year indicate that Quebec’s main source of population increase comes from international immigration. Over 54,000 people immigrated to the province in 2009, accounting for 57 percent of Quebec’s population boost. In fact, since 2000, immigration has been the province’s main source of populace increase. The study predicts that by 2029, immigration may be the province’s only source of population increase.
Interestingly, well over 10 thousand Quebecers moved out of the province last year. Every year for the last 15, an average of 9,500 people leave the province to settle in other parts of Canada. The Government-published study says this is due to the job opportunities available in other provinces and the large number of immigrants who decide to move elsewhere in the country a few years after arriving.
What these numbers show is that, while the population is still increasing, the rate at which it is increasing is slowly diminishing.
This year, the province’s population grew by 0.8 percent from 2008. By 2025, that growth rate will be down to 0.5 percent. While the population is expected to continue to increase, even in the long-term (the study’s projections go until 2056), the diminishing rate is causing the government to take action.
“For many years, Quebec has experienced some major demographic changes,” reads the study. “There will be, if nothing is done, serious repercussions on our society’s evolution.”
The government seems to believe that while predicting population trends decades ahead of time is far from perfect, it is better to take action now rather than later. “Even if the demographic scenario is hypothetical,” reads the publication. “Knowing the magnitude and the dynamic of the anticipated phenomenon gives us the tools we need to continue to act.”
The study lists a number of ways that the provincial government is helping to improve the situation, including child-care efforts, facilitating immigration procedures, and encouraging participation in the work force. By Doug McCooeye 2009-12-31 |
Montreal Canadiens
