Quebec releases COVID-19 projection figures

Record Staff

Tuesday afternoon Quebec public health specialist Dr. Richard Massé presented current projections on the possible progression of COVID-19 in the coming weeks. Massé presented two possible models of what could happen, a pessimistic model based on what has been happening in Italy, and an optimistic model based on information out of Portugal and Germany.
According to Massé and his team, the peak of the current provincial trend is likely to come somewhere around April 18 to 20. In the pessimistic scenario, Quebec will have seen 59,845 cases by that point, with 3028 hospitalizations, 1,009 people in intensive care, and 8,860 deaths. In the optimistic scenario, those numbers drop to 29,212 cases, 1,404 hospitalizations, 468 in intensive care, and 1.263 dead. The real figures, he said, are likely to fall somewhere between those two. “We will not be close to the pessimistic model,” Massé noted, pointing out that although things are being simplified to a single provincial curve, there are really individual figures for each region and context, and a large number of factors that could change the numbers provided. Should the number of daily cases really start to decrease by the end of the month, the public health official said that the province will then be able to start looking at when, how, and under what conditions aspects of society like schools and daycares can be restarted. He emphasized the importance, however, of a progressive return to economic activity, since jumping back in all at once would just start the curve rising all over again.

Published in the Wednesday, April 8 edition of The Record.

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